Welcome back to Post Position, a recurring but not-at-all regular column about F1.1 Two posts in a week! Don’t get used to it.
Charles Leclerc, Ferrari’s #1
Charles Leclerc is Ferrari’s top driver. To some, that may not seem controversial. He was consistently quicker than both of his former Ferrari teammates Carlos Sainz and Sebastian Vettel. Ferrari has never signed anyone to long, multiyear contracts the way they have Leclerc. From this perspective, Il Predestinato is as settled at the Scuderia as anyone could be.
On the other hand, team principal Fred Vasseur just brought in seven-time world champion and international icon Lewis Hamilton to drive the other red car, paying him nine figures to do so. In almost any other situation, Lewis is the unquestioned #1. Early returns from the track, though, make clear that it’s Leclerc’s team and Lewis is just racing for it.
Numbers Never Lie
You might be thinking, “but Lewis qualified on pole and won the Sprint in China!” And you’re right that the shocking pair of results is the clear high water mark for Ferrari this season. BUT I have done my own research, crunched the numbers, and I have proof that Chuck is faster and better and deserving of my undying love and affection.
Four stats tell the story: average qualifying position, qualifying margin, race position, and race margin.2
Looking first at average qualifying position, we see 5th and 6th as the “expected” spots based on performance through five rounds. It makes sense they’re right next to each other in a sport heavily stratified by car quality.
Moving on to qualifying margin, the picture gets a little clearer. Charles is putting multiple tenths between himself and Lewis in any given Q3 session, a significant gap that can be worth several places depending on the track.
Average race position tells an interesting story. Charles is just about bang-on to his qualifying position while Lewis is finishing a bit better than his one-lap pace would suggest. Credit to the veteran for racecraft, but Charles is still a full place ahead here in the aggregate.
Finally, average race margin is particularly telling. Lewis is finishing half again as far back of the leader as Charles is. 7.5 seconds over the course of a race shows lap-over-lap dominance.
Convinced Yet?
When you put those metrics together, it’s no surprise Charles is leading Lewis by 16 points in the driver’s championship standings. Both are well back of leader Oscar Piastri (99) and only separated by one spot (Charles 5th, Lewis 7th), but the gap is clear.
Will this weekend’s race3 inevitably have Lewis finishing well ahead of Charles as the universe pulls another prank on my sports fandom? Mind your business.