There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the potential multiple autobids for each conference once the playoff moves to 16 teams. Many people feel this is the Big Ten and SEC exerting their influence to hold even more power. However, my thinking is they’ll both have 4 teams in the top 16 most years anyway, and it’s more likely this will benefit the ACC and Big 12. With that in mind, I took a lot back at the playoff era to see how this would impacted each year for a 16 team playoff. I used current conferences since that’s most relevant to now.
2014:
No changes, we’d have had the same top 16.
2015:
Helped: LSU, Oklahoma State
Hurt: Oregon , Michigan
Our first change here, and it’s the big ten getting screwed. The SEC was pretty top heavy with the top 3 this year, so LSU gets a boost, and so does Oklahoma State.
2016:
Helped: Florida
Hurt: West Virginia
The rare year where the SEC benefits at the hands of the big 12. This was kind of a weird year, partially because Western Michigan was in the top 16 anyway, plus a weirdly good Colorado year.
2017:
No changes in this one either.
2018:
Helped: Syracuse, Utah
Hurt: Texas, Kentucky
The Big 12 and ACC both benefit in this one, and 2 SEC teams are the victim. Poor Mark Stoops.
2019:
Helped: Virginia,
Hurt: Notre Dame
Notre Dame getting screwed by a semi-conference mate, smdh.
2020:
Surprisingly no changes given what a weird year this was.
2021:
Helped: Oklahoma, Wake Forest
Hurt: Iowa, BYU
This time one conference in each group gets involved. Sorry to BYU here(not actually that sorry), but this is just as much the ACC’s fault as the SEC’s.
2022:
Helped: LSU
Hurt: Oregon
Why must the Big Ten continue to lose playoff teams so that the SEC can benefit.
2023:
Helped: Oklahoma State
Hurt: LSU
Payback for losing Les Miles on this one.
2024:
Helped: BYU
Hurt: South Carolina
This one actually doesn’t count because South Carolina didn’t really lose any of their games. They were actually undefeated if you really think about it and should be number one.
After looking at all of these, I think it becomes clear that for most part, 4/4/2/2 is actually a benefit for the ACC and Big 12, not the SEC and Big Ten. Odds are good most years they’ll be having 4 teams anyway. And just by virtue of having the most ranked teams, they’ll also be the ones getting pushed out for an autobid, since more ranked teams increases your chances of having the team ranked 15.