Big Mood Baseball - 6/4

Summer’s heating up, and so is the chaos across Major League Baseball. Some teams are finally finding their footing, others are faceplanting into June. Let’s check the mood across the league.

The Blue Jays are entering summer strong, going 8–2 over their last 10 games. While the rest of the league was at their Memorial Day pool parties, Toronto was grinding away, improving their FanGraphs playoff odds by 10% from last week. They took advantage of a slumping A’s team at home and managed a series win against a tough Phillies lineup. They’re firmly in the “contenders” conversation.

They have two unsung hero hitters to thank for this recent hot stretch. Ernie Clement, who grew up in Rochester, NY—just on the other side of Lake Ontario—is raking. A 1.310 OPS with a sub–5% strikeout rate in his last 6 games is driving incredible production out of the 6-hole. Meanwhile, Statcast darling Addison Barger has finally turned his brick-red Savant page into value, cranking 4 homers and 8 RBIs in the last week. If these two keep mashing, the Blue Jays are a team to watch through June.

A sweep in Philadelphia and a series win in Cincinnati have Milwaukee on the right side of .500 and right back in the playoff hunt. They’re now back on pace with their expected W/L based on run differential and have some key series against NL contenders coming up—including San Diego, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Chicago. Success over the next two weeks would be huge for the Brewers.

This success is even more incredible with a quick glance at their pitching staff. They’re getting core innings out of Quinn Priester, a minor-league trade acquisition in April, and something called Chad Patrick. Patrick had a rough 2023 as a member of the A’s and Diamondbacks’ minor league systems, but excelled in 2024 in Nashville after a trade to the Brewers. He has a 2.97 ERA and a 3.30 FIP over 63 innings this year, showing some real staying power. Unfortunately, they’re going to need to keep leaning on these youngsters — Brandon Woodruff got hit in the elbow by a comebacker during a recent rehab start. Here’s hoping his string of bad injury luck ends there and he’s back in the majors soon.

Careful readers will have noticed that both our Good Vibes teams beat the Phillies in the last week. But they didn’t just beat them—they crushed them, to the tune of a 42–21 run differential over the last 6 games. The recent skid has Philadelphia falling behind the Mets in both the current standings and FanGraphs’ projections to win the NL East. And while they’ve won 10 more games than the Braves, their season-long run differential is just 12 runs better than Atlanta’s. Philly is lucky to be where they are, and their luck might be running thin.

Also running thin: J.T. Realmuto’s time as a top catcher in the NL. With a season-long average of .226 and a recent history of nagging injuries (including a current groin strain—couldn’t be me), J.T.’s age might finally be catching up to him. His battery mate, Jesús Luzardo, isn’t faring much better—putting up two stinkers this week in which he gave up 20 ER (yes, 20) over just 5.2 IP. With Luzardo’s struggles and Aaron Nola’s injury, you have to wonder how long Philly will let Andrew Painter waste pitches (and his 27% K-rate) in AAA. They could certainly use the help.

The Yankees have a new closer! And it’s… uh… Devin Williams. Yeah, the guy with a 6.35 ERA on the year. With Luke Weaver going down with a strained hamstring (probably suffered from carrying the entire bullpen on his back), the Bronx Bombers are looking back to their big winter trade acquisition to save games. He has 2 saves in the last week, but those also happen to be the two games in which he gave up multiple hits and at least a run. Something tells me there’s more turmoil coming in the bullpen.

Unfortunately, the pressure is on in New York. With the Knicks shockingly knocked out by the ascendant Indiana Pacers, the Yankees are back in the spotlight. And with 6 of their next 7 series against teams with losing records, the New York media microscope will be squarely on Yankee Stadium. How will unproven hitters like Ben Rice, Jasson Domínguez, and Giancarlo Stanton (expected back soon?) fare under the spotlight? June will be a key month to either put up or shut up for this team.